‘Expectations are so high at Leinster that merely league-winning seasons are not considered good enough’

The milk and honey transfer days of Jordie Barrett, Damien de Allende, Brad Thorn, Ruan Pienaar, Christian Cullen, Isa Nacewa, Mils Muliaine and Duane Vermeulen are behind us. Ireland’s four professional teams no longer focus on overseas signings. Instead, they either lure Irish players to skip provinces, repatriate old boys or rely on scouts to find relatively cheap gems.

Earlier this month, the Irish Rugby Football Union announced it was seeking expressions of interest for a partner to design, build, finance and manage ‘Lansdowne Quarter’ – a large hotel and apartment complex, located opposite the Aviva Stadium.

As the IRFU plays Monopoly, the four provinces have been ordered to pull up their cotton socks, look after their finances and, while they’re at it, hand over a portion of their centrally-contracted players’ wages. For many years, the provinces have had the luxury of having the union cover the annual wages of their centrally contracted players. In 2024, they were told to cut 30% of those wages. Since the beginning of this season, that has increased to 40%. For Leinster, who have a dozen players on central contracts (by far the most of any province), that’s the equivalent of fully funding the wages of five top talents.

Every province feels the pain. It’s one of the key reasons why foreign imports (no offense) refer to the troposphere of Eli Snyman and Kieran Brookes, as opposed to the stratosphere of Rocky Elsom, Jean de Villiers or Steven Kitshoff.

The easiest way to do the Irish provincial reviews each season is to start from Connacht and run alphabetically until you reach Ulster. In this case, prompted by the clouds of injury that descend on one poor province, I begin with the side that worries me the most. This overview includes the United Rugby Championship, Challenge Cup (Ulster) and Champions Cup. The weight of expectations against each province will certainly be a factor in deciding this top four.

So let’s start with the fans hoping for the best but fearing the worst.

Munster

Last season got off to a dream start for Munster – winning all five of their opening URC games, including a win over Leinster in Croke Park. It ended with a nightmare retreat. They lost seven of their next 12 league games and should have won Lions on the final day of the regular season to make the play-offs and secure the Rugby Champions Cup. They traveled to Pretoria for the URC quarter-finals and were comprehensively beaten by the Bulls.

In the midst of a difficult season, in which voluntary redundancies were requested, and they lost four out of five European games, Munster hired a new offensive coach. Spurred by public and press backlash, they overturned the appointment and launched an ‘independent management review’. Clayton McMillan tried to bring in Roger Randle to rebuild Munster’s attack, but historic allegations against the Kiwis resurfaced and all parties agreed to withdraw. Randle joins Hurricanes as assistant coach, while Munster’s attacking form and play will be engineered (and juggled) by two men – Mossy Lawler and Jared Payne.

The departure of Jean Kleyn to Gloucester and the retirements of Niall Scannell and John Ryan mean Munster enter the new season without three experienced veterans who all played roles in the title-winning campaign three years ago. Thaakir Abrahams impressed during his two seasons in Limerick but is now a Bulls player.

Munster’s biggest concern revolves around who will wear the No.10 jersey. Jack Crowley – listed as a ‘lower limb vascular injury’ – is out until the start of 2027, as is young scrum-half Tom Wood, son of Munster legend Keith Wood. Aussie fullback Will Harrison has been signed to cover multiple positions, but another is in the treatment room after an old knee injury flared up. There is such a strain on half the resources, the province has re-signed a player they only lost in June. Tony Butler may have feared his days as a rugby professional were over. Now he has a short-term contract to prove his old/new club wrong.

Three experienced props – Brookes, Jack Augnier and Marnus van der Merwe – have been brought in, but this is the season Munster need younger members of the squad to rise from potential to consistency and genuine game-changing impact. I’m looking directly at Josh Wycherley, Evan O’Connell, Tom Ahern, Ruadhan Quinn, Edwin Edogbo and Brian Gleeson here. All six have been in and around the senior team long enough to see gaps that need to be filled.

There is no one to hold hands anymore. If they can take the performance level to the next level, and the likes of Seán Edogbo, Ronan Foxe and Ben O’Connor can continue, there is hope. Charlie O’Shea is yet to make his debut, but a lot rests on the 20-year-old flyweight’s shoulders. Munster need new heroes. If he shows up a bit, last season might look like a smooth ride compared to this one.

Ulster

Second on the list of provinces I would worry about the most, entering the new season. Ulster were on course for a great 2025/26 season, until the final month of the season knocked them upside down. They lost three of their last four URC matches, drawing the others, to miss out on the playoffs. The rest is conquest Challenge Cup as their only route back to Champions Cup rugby, to Montpellier monstered them, 49-26, in the final.

There are certainly reasons for optimism, up in Ulster. Richie Murphy and Mark Sexton have made them an attractive side to watch when it clicks. Their oft-lamented academy is starting to churn out guys willing to stand and trade. Murphy and his coaching staff switched to many bodies over the summer and toured Europe to, in theory, rebuild a side brimming with potential. The capture of Matthew Devine (Connacht) and Jamie Benson (Harlequins) could soon be seen as tricky business. They both have balance around them. Having James McNabney back and ready to start the new season is a bonus. Joe Schmidt will also be in the building during the season, in his specially created ‘coach development coach’ gig.

If I had a gripe about anything, it would be the more and more players being drafted into Ireland duty, and the physical effort involved. Rob Baloucoune and Stuart McCloskey had great seasons for Ulster and Ireland respectively, only to be hit by injuries in the second half of the season. Veterans Iain Henderson and Rob Herring will turn 35 and 37 respectively during the season.

I mentioned in last season’s preview how tempting a long Challenge Cup run would be. So it turned out. For this campaign, I would urge them to give their all for URC as they should aim for a top four finish in the regular season.

Leinster

Number three on my list, for three reasons:

1. Expectations are so high that seasons of just winning the league are not considered good enough
2. The team lost a lot of talented professionals, and the team was frugal with the arrivals
3. As if losing five Champions Cup finals since 2019 was bad enough, this is the team’s last chance to send Leo Cullen off with that long-coveted fifth star

Leinster lost (drumroll please) James Lowe, Rieko Ioane, Rabah Slimani, Luke McGrath, Ciarán Frawley, Jerry Cahir and Will Connors in the off-season. Their response was to promote three academy players – including handsome Josh Kenny – to senior deals and send the pigeons to bring in Joey Carbery and Peter Dooley. Well done. You won’t find many souls sympathetic to Leinster’s cause, though. They have a complex team.

One pressure point area will certainly be the depth of the loose head. Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle may not be back until the end of the year, Cahir has moved to Connacht and Ed Byrne has retired. My side project campaign of getting Andrew Porter back into a solid head is on the back burner.

Any team containing Sheehan, Doris, van der Flier, McCarthy, Baird, Conan, Gibson-Park, Ringrose, Snyman and Keenan will defeat most competitors. They are my big favorites for three league titles. But what about Europe? Big rivals brought in the likes of Siya Kolisi, Tommaso Menoncello, George Martin, Alfie Barbeary, Cheslin Kolbe, Tom Willis and Wilco Louw. Leinster are in ‘prove me wrong’ territory, and I think they’ve failed again.

Then we have Cullen talking about Carbery being ‘strong-armed’ to leave Leinster, as early as 2018, and Jacques Nienaber pointing out that he can’t say he enjoys return trips to South Africa as naysayers will insist. If Leinster can block out the noise, they are capable of crossing that big, scary finish line. If not, and they keep increasing that noise, things could quickly go sour.

Connacht

I believe Leinster will finish much higher in the URC standings and are a threat to the trophy in two competitions, but I still have bigger concerns for them than Connacht. Soon into the new season, optimism reigns around Stuart Lancaster.

There were three smart acquisitions from the Leinster ranks, Ciarán Frawley being the pick of the bunch. Their academy graduates have already made waves at the senior levels, with Billy Bohan returning from his summer break as an Ireland international – a nod to chasing the other pups.

Denis Buckley and Jack Carty have moved on, meaning just four members – Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Bundee Aki and Caolin Blade – remain from the 2016 league-winning team. Connacht are cashing in on those good vibes, a decade later, as they celebrate with a special anniversary bash at the Dexcom Stadium. For newer faces out west, it’s a timely reminder of what can happen when a team clicks and goes into action with bold, attacking rugby.

Mack Hansen is in back shape, with what he calls a ‘bionic foot’. Sean Jansen will enter the new season after playing for Ireland in the Nations Championship and Sam Illo is another who will push for more international involvement. Buoyed by Lancaster, Connacht have some good, young talent in the likes of Harry West, Hugh Gavin, Matt Victory and Finn Treacy. They look good to challenge for the top six in the regular season.

My big Connacht concern is reserved for the Champions Cup, where they have to face Saracens, Toulouse, Exeter and La Rochelle. If they get at least one win from that streak, they’ve done well.

predictions:

• Leinster – Champions
• Ulster – 4th
• Connacht – 6th
• Munster – 9