Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) middleweights Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan collide TONIGHT (Saturday 10 October 2026) in Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 122.
Allen enters this fight in a rather unusual position. His upset win over Reinier de Ridder last year should have pushed him back into the ranks; However, you won’t get high-profile fights for “All-In”. Perhaps due to previous losses to top contenders, Allen is forced to fight down for the third time in a row.
Perhaps a win here could finally score him a long awaited grudge match In Dricus du Plessis? There’s just no “subtlety” anymore.
However, Duncan is no easy task. The English forward is starting to realize his potential, winning five in a row and seven of his last eight. A dynamic kickboxer with striking ability, Duncan could significantly improve his position in the title picture by winning his first main event opportunity.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Allen vs. Duncan Betting odds
- Brendan Allen’s win: -138
- Brendan Allen via TKO/KO/DQ: +850
- Brendan Allen via submission: +300
- Brendan Allen by decision: +250
- Christian Leroy Duncan Win: +108
- Christian Leroy Duncan via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
- Christian Leroy Duncan via Submission: +2500
- Christian Leroy Duncan by decision: +500
- Odds via FanDuel sports betting
Allen is a well-rounded middleweight, especially offensively. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with excellent back attacks, a very capable grappler and has strong combinations of punches, kicks and knees. Historically, he is a bit too easy to beat, which has cost him on several different occasions.
This is also a concern here.
Fortunately, Allen’s roundness is a big advantage. We’ve seen Duncan struggle with his output when he’s forced to defend against both threatening combinations and true takedowns. By mixing up his attacks, Allen can quite possibly overpower a “cleaner” kickboxer.
It also helps that Allen is well-equipped to counter a couple of key Duncan traits. On the one hand, Duncan often likes to clash, with Allen being the better grappler and fighter. If Duncan jumps forward with a right, lands a jab, and eats a knee or elbow for his trouble, he’s less likely to advance. Likewise, Duncan loves to spin and Allen is a great quarterback.
One well-timed sidestep could throw Allen off guard, or at least make Duncan think twice before deploying one of his key weapons.
Duncan is a tall and athletic middleweight who fights with a traditional martial arts flair. He stands sideways and has good distance control, aided by that massive 79-inch reach. Unlike most karate-style kickboxers, he is actually more dangerous on the initiative, stepping forward with long, powerful straight punches, explosive punches, or favored spinning techniques.
As mentioned above, Duncan wants to be careful with his spin shots here. He shouldn’t abandon them entirely—they’re a staple of his offense—but Duncan needs to fake it often and only throw them when it’s appropriate. For example, if Allen is at the fence and taking cover due to the risk of being hit, a punch to the gut would be perfectly appropriate.
While Duncan fights well going forward, the threat of a reactive takedown while over-extending may actually cause him to change strategies here. Allen is chronically aggressive, and men like him have walked on him with heavy counter punches Sean Strickland and even Chris Curtis. If Duncan decides to really trust his jabs, he can punch Allen in the face, back off, and then try to land a harder punch if Allen steps forward.
Allen vs. Duncan Prediction
I have mixed feelings about this matchup as I don’t really trust either guy. Allen is a more experienced veteran, but he’s also somewhat prone to falling apart when he starts to lose ground. Duncan, meanwhile, is still making mistakes in managing the distance. If he’s not careful, he’ll walk right into a takedown or abandon his spin, two potential mistakes that can drastically change the course of a fight.
If Duncan stays calm and feeds Allen a combo or two, he should win here. When Allen cleverly combines his pocket boxing, clinch striking and offensive wrestling, he should win here.
Who to trust? I take the side of momentum. Duncan is only in his sixth year as a professional, and at the start of 2024 things seemed to be clicking. Two years later, he should be on his way to becoming an elite middleweight. On the contrary, we’ve probably already seen and missed the best of Allen in the past.
A close decision either way wouldn’t shock me, nor would an early Allen choke. However, when it comes to the draw, favoring the more athletic upstarts isn’t the worst.
Prediction: Duncan via decision
