Is it time to take the Falcons seriously? It certainly seems that way now that Atlanta has its starting quarterback in the lineup.
Michael Penix Jr. looked as good as anyone expected in his first game back from a major knee injury, and Bijan Robinson looked unstoppable on the ground in a surprisingly non-competitive 35-14 win over the Packers in Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Packers look like a broken team with no clear fixes as they fall to 1-2.
Here are my suggestions:
Is that right? Maybe not. LaFleur is clearly a good coach who resurrected Aaron Rodgers’ career and developed Jordan Love into a top-10 quarterback. He has had Green Bay’s offense near the top of the league’s statistical charts throughout his tenure as head coach.
But you can’t hang banners for expected points added (EPA) or DVOA, and it looks like the Packers are further away from winning a Super Bowl than they’ve ever been in LaFleur’s eight-year tenure, which has produced just three playoff wins.
A 1-2 start isn’t impossible to pull off, and Green Bay will eventually return Micah Parsons; but this team’s problems may not be solvable. The offensive line is certainly beyond saving, and as we saw Thursday night, it is holding the entire offense back. The Packers came into the game with the league’s worst rushing game, and that won’t change after a 17-yard performance. Pass protection has been an even bigger problem. Love has been under fire all season, and the Falcons have pressured him on 42% of his downs with an average time per pressure of 2.28 seconds, according to Next Generation Stats.
The defense had been better than expected coming into the game — and former first-round pick Lukas Van Ness has been a bright spot — but Thursday’s performance won’t inspire confidence. After an early Michael Penix interception, Atlanta marched up and down the field with little resistance.
This is a bad football team right now. If LaFleur can’t bounce back this season, questions about his job security will continue. Whether the Packers move on from him is another matter. LaFleur just signed a contract extension this offseason, and this is the only NFL team that doesn’t have a billionaire owner who can eat that kind of money. Even if the team wants to let go of the 46-year-old coach, it may not be able to afford him.
With all due respect to Jahmyr Gibbs, there is no better viewing experience than watching Robinson slide through defenses. He put on a show Thursday night in Green Bay, racking up 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries. It was Robinson’s 11th game with at least 150 yards from scrimmage since he entered the league. Only Derrick Henry has more since 2022.
The case for Robinson as the NFL’s best player is strong. He has an okay offensive line and a passing game that doesn’t give him much protection, but the 2024 first-round pick continues to produce big plays for an offense that desperately needs them. Thursday night, he forced eight fumbles and produced 175 rushing yards AFTER contact, according to next generation statistics.
Few players can carry an offense on their own, but Robinson is definitely on that short list. If Atlanta’s passing game can be merely competent, this team should score enough points to stay in the NFC South race all season.
The Falcons will return to primetime the next two weeks. This seemed like an error in judgment by the schedule makers come Thursday, but the Bijan Robinson Show can’t miss on television.
We had to wait until the third week of the regular season, but the Falcons quarterback race is finally settled. We’ll have to wait for confirmation from Kevin Stefanski, but Michael Penix Jr. should be the undisputed starter after his performance in Green Bay.
Penix shook off a shaky start that included an ugly interception, but was lights out the rest of the night, averaging over 10 yards per attempt. While he took the ball away in a hurry, that didn’t stop him from pushing it down the field. He unblocked Drake London, who was off to a sleepy start to the season but broke out with a 194-yard performance, including two big gains of 68 and 40.
The Falcons’ passing game was always going to improve with a legitimate starter replacing Cooper Rush, but few expected it to show THIS good in Penix’s first game since tearing his ACL last season. The third-year pro should get even better as he re-acclimatizes to playing against straight-up defenses after missing the entire preseason and most of training camp.
Penix doesn’t have to be a world beater to thrive in this talented offense. Robinson will do most of the heavy lifting, and guys like London and Kyle Pitts will regularly turn routine shots into big plays. It was easy to forget how stacked this offense is when Rush was there, but the sky’s the limit for the unit if Penix can repeat this performance.
We’ll find out if the Falcons can contend for the division next week when they travel to New Orleans. That’s followed by a tough stretch of games against true NFC contenders, so Atlanta may need to win that one to make a real playoff push.
Green Bay goes on the road to face a desperate Buccaneers team before their first game with the rival Bears. If the Packers fall to 1-3 heading into that Chicago game, the chatter about LaFleur’s job will only get stronger.