One of the basic realities of life in the NFL is that every team is assigned to a division with three other teams, forever. (Until there’s a reason to realign, which last happened in 2002.) And whether a team is in a good division or a bad division controls much of a team’s success, or not, in a given year.
Of the 17 games played, six of them are determined by the division to which it is assigned. If other teams are really good, it makes it harder for an otherwise good team to be as good as it can be. If the other teams aren’t very good, it’s easier.
The fact that this is so obvious shows how fundamentally unfair it is. It could give some smaller teams an opportunity to host a playoff game. It can give a good team in an otherwise bad division a chance to win enough games to emerge as the top seed in a conference (for example, the Patriots through much of the 2010s).
This year, the AFC and NFC North teams will each have a tougher path to whatever their best-case scenario is simply based on membership in a predetermined division. All of them are above .500 through five weeks.
Through NBC Sports research, a complete division has been above .500 after six weeks just three times since 2002 (NFC North 2025, NFC North 2024 and NFC East 2005). Depending on how this weekend goes, both the AFC North and NFC North could flip that three-to-five list.
The Vikings, Lions and Bengals are gone, so six weeks of hay is in the barn for each of them. To complete the feat, the 3-2 Browns must beat the 4-1 Ravens, the 3-2 Bears must beat the Falcons, the 3-2 Packers must beat the Cowboys, and the 3-2 Steelers must beat the Buccaneers.
If the Bears and Packers win, it will be the third straight year that any team in the NFC North is above .500 through six weeks. Which will make it harder for each of them to get where they want to be.
That will likely change when the NFL expands the regular season to 18 games and plants the playoff tree regardless of whether a team has won its division. This will still not solve the problem and will strengthen the argument that there should be no separation at all. Or, alternatively, that the two games a year against each of the other teams in the division become one game a year.
The point right now is that each of the four teams in the AFC North and NFC North could end up objectively playoff-worthy in 2026, but playing six games against those other teams will make qualifying more difficult. Meanwhile, someone from the NFC South will win the division and host a playoff game — even if (like last year) neither of them finishes at or above .500.
The whole approach makes it harder for the NFL to honor the sport’s most fundamental and enduring message: “May the best team win.” Given the way the NFL arranges its teams, the best team can end up with hurdles that the not-so-best team won’t have to overcome. Which could make it easier for the not-so-best team to win the Super Bowl.