We’re halfway through the 2026 NFL season.
And it’s time to look at some real Super Bowl contenders.
These are the teams that look like real title contenders in both the AFC and NFC, at least right now. Couldn’t a team on this list make a run? Absolutely, this is the nature of sports. But for now, these are the 11 groups you can make a case for.
With the big question, they need to return in the second half of the season.
AFC Super Bowl contenders
Through the first half of the NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have placed themselves among the league’s elite. They lead the road in scoring margin of +108 (the only team over 100) and lead the NFL in turnover margin. Trevor Lawrence is playing like an MVP candidate, and a defense that has been good — Jacksonville is currently ranked third in defensive EPA/Play — added plenty of talent ahead of the NFL trade deadline.
The big question: Can the additions make this team over the top?
Jacksonville looked like a Super Bowl contender before the NFL trade deadline, so it’s no surprise that general manager James Gladstone was aggressive in acquiring players like Jordan Davis, Jesse Batts III and Davon Godchous. Can those additions propel Jacksonville to the Super Bowl?
While the Jacksonville Jaguars grabbed the headlines this week, the Buffalo Bills continued to jam together. Josh Allen and company went into Minnesota and beat the Vikings on “Monday Night Football,” improving to 7-1 on the season and keeping themselves atop the AFC standings.
It’s easy to say the Bills have a shot as long as Allen has them. But with James Cook emerging as a plus in the backfield and Keon Coleman in the passing game, Buffalo certainly has an offense to contend with.
The big question: Can the defense get higher?
But the defense remains a big question mark. This team looked good on Monday night, but that came at the cost of what we saw from Carson Wentz. Can the Buffalo defense slow down?
For Bills fans, Amani Hooker is the answer.
The same case can be made for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati certainly has an offense they can rely on down the stretch. Joe Burroughs is playing at an elite level (tied for third in adjusted net yards per attempt at 8.0), the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Ty Higgins pressure every defensive secondary they face, and Chase Brown gives Cincinnati an option in the ground game. The Bengals are currently averaging 0.146 points per game, just behind the San Francisco 49ers.
That is an abuse you can overcome.
The big question: Can the defense get higher?
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the question in Cincinnati is defense-centric.
This team is off to a good start, including holding Houston to just six points in a Week 2 win, but giving up 36 points to Tennessee two weeks ago is a data point.
The Denver Broncos are an amazing team.
When you look at Denver through the EPA lens, you see a team that is more “league average” than a Super Bowl contender. Denver’s talented defense is a below-average unit at pass (EPA/dropback testing) and the offense Right in the middle of the pack:
And they’re still at 7-2, behind Buffalo at the top of the AFC standings. And Denver has two impressive wins on its resume, home wins over both Jacksonville and Kansas City.
While the Christmas Day game against Buffalo is huge, they look like contenders at the moment.
The big question: Bo Nix?
That’s the big question, isn’t it? Can Broncos fans believe that Bo Nix is the quarterback?
If so, this team could make a deep run. If not…
Patrick Mahomes is at least relatively healthy back. That’s enough years to mark the Kansas City Chiefs as Super Bowl contenders. But Kansas City ramped up their rushing offense.
However, something seems to be off with Kansas City this year.
The big question: Where do the explosives come from?
We tried to put Quaker here but…
While the Chiefs have one of the most explosive running games in the league — Kansas City’s seven runs of 20 yards or more, tied for fifth in the NFL — their only 22 such passing plays rank them at the bottom of the league. Can you find the mines in the spread passing game?
Another amazing team? Pittsburgh Steelers.
This is the year If it’s the 1970s, you can consider the Steelers at the top of lists like this. Pittsburgh has an impressive running game (the Steelers have an EPA / rush of 0.097, leading the NFL, one of two teams with a positive number in that category) and a defense that is among the best in the league. The Steelers rank sixth in the NFL in FAP/run defense, and fifth in the league in scoring defense.
The passing game, however, is another story. And since we’re not in the 1970s…
The big question: Can you get enough of the passing game?
Again, looking at the EPA/dropback, the Steelers have some questions to answer in the passing game. Pittsburgh averages -0.069 expected points added per touchdown, the seventh-lowest mark in the league.
NFC Super Bowl Champions
The San Francisco 49ers continue to struggle.
Despite an injured roster throughout the NFL season, the 49ers remain at the top of the NFC standings and show no signs of slowing down. With San Francisco’s Week 8 win over the Atlanta Falcons, the 49ers have the inside track to the division title, and their eyes are set on the top spot in the NFC.
The big question: What makes this San Francisco team different?
We have seen this from San Francisco. A team that wins 12 or more games in the regular season falls short in the playoffs. Is there anything he’s doing differently this year? Another year of Brock Purdy? Are the rest of the congregation facing bigger questions? What will be different for San Francisco in 2026?
Maybe the return of Brandon Ayuck will help…
If the NFL playoffs started today, the Chicago Bears would win the NFC North and be one of the top four teams in the playoffs.
The reasons to believe in the Bears start on the striker’s side of the ball. Caleb Williams has put himself in the MVP mix, and while his four interceptions against Tampa Bay on Monday night put a big damper on those chances, it gives the Bears a way to win every Sunday. And in the hands of Ben Johnson, this offense is a problem for most defenses.
The big question: Is Jeffery Simmons exactly what the Bears want?
The questions in Chicago over the past few months have centered on defense. But with the Jeffery Simmons trade, this team took a big step. Simmons paid immediate dividends against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8, and if the defense continues to improve around him, this could be a tough team to beat.
As far as offenses go, the Detroit Lions check a lot of boxes. Jared Goff ranks fifth among eligible passers in ANY/A, Jahmir Gibbs is one of the most explosive players in the league, and when you look at EPA, the Lions’ offense is right where you want it to be: above league average in both EPA/dropback and EPA/rush attempts.
The question in Detroit, as we’ve seen with other teams, comes on the defensive side of the football. The Lions have struggled on defense this season, but that unit is trending in the right direction. The Lions have won four straight and the defense has held opponents under 17 points in each of the last three wins. That includes holding Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers to just 17 points in Week 7. And with Brian Branch expected to return soon, this defense could improve at the right time.
The big question: Has the defense turned a corner?
This is a defense that gave up 30 points to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, 41 points to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, 24 points to the New York Jets – THE JETS – in Week 3 and 32 points to the Carolina Panthers in Week 4.
But the trend is their friend.
There’s a strong case that Jordan Love is the MVP of the midseason.
Actually our very own Jarrett Bailey He made the case on Tuesday.
However, something else could help this team down the stretch, and that is the return of Micah Parsons. The pass rusher returned to practice last week and, if available for the rest of the season, could turn what was an average defense into a much better one to close out the year.
The big question: What about the offensive line?
We thought Green Bay had fixed their offensive line a few weeks ago, but that unit has struggled the last few weeks. Can Matt LaFleur and company find the right combination for the stretch run?
The Vikings actually fell off that list on Tuesday morning.
But they returned on Tuesday afternoon.
why? Kirk Relatives Business. All of a sudden, a seemingly disastrous disaster has been reduced, at least on paper. Will it be enough to save the season in Minnesota?
Defensively, Brian Flores is ending up there, maybe.
The big question: Are Kirk’s relatives the answer?
There’s a strong case that Carson Wentz’s performance against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night was the worst outing by a Vikings quarterback in franchise history.
Cousins is league average from the stretch — or Even slightly below average – It might be enough for Minnesota.
