New Japan Pro Wrestling’s biggest event of the year, NJPW Wrestle Kingdom 21is fast approaching as the Tokyo Dome welcomes all comers on January 4th. However, the upcoming event won’t just feature NJPW performers, as a number of AEW’s top talents are also heading to Tokyo in January, and Dave Meltzer breaks down the politics of how the night could play out at the latest edition. Wrestling Observer Newsletter:.
The current NJPW Wrestle Kingdom 21 card will see Kenny Omega challenge for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship against Yota Tsuji, Gabe Kidd defend the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship against Yuya Uemura, and the team of Mistico and the mystery partner take on the trio of Taiji Ishimori and Robbie Ejita. Between Ejita and Kose. IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Championship. Meanwhile, in non-title matches, John Moxley will face Shingo Takagi, MJF will face Ryohei Oiwa, and current AEW World Champion Will Osprey will face Calum Newman.
With all those matchups in mind, Meltzer believes that to keep all parties happy, each company needs to get three wins each so that the partnership can remain strong for both parties. For NJPW, Meltzer can see that Mystico and his mystery partner aren’t winning so easily, with Uemura defeating Kidd for two easy wins. For AEW, considering he’s putting his “Real” AEW World Championship on the line, Meltzer could see MJF defeat Oiwa, and if Ospreay is still the real AEW Wrestle Kingdom Champion, he needs to beat Newman because that would complicate things in the States.
For the last two bouts, Takagi and Moxley could go either way, according to Meltzer, as Takagi has suffered numerous losses to people below him on the card, while Moxley will submit to anyone if the job is right, and the outcome of this fight for Meltzer could dictate what happens in the main event.
A Kenny Omega win could be big business for NJPW
He can see Tsuji retain his crown and defeat a top foreign star like Omega, especially since Wrestle Kingdom will be televised on network television in Japan, which will establish Tsuji as the country’s top domestic star. However, an Omega win would have some positives as he is a more popular star that would give NJPW a business boost in the first part of 2027 and it would give Tsuji more of a reason to make a title return later in the year, which would also be great business.
Meltzer explained that Omega’s path to defeating Tsuji would be the same story that NJPW told with Hiroshi Tanahashi 18 years ago, when he first lost to Keiji Muto, only to win a rematch and be recognized as NJPW’s new undisputed top babyface. Speaking of Tanahashi, Meltzer noted that the company doesn’t want a repeat of Tanahashi’s retirement at Wrestle Kingdom 20 in January 2026, which ended up being Highest attended Tokyo Dome event for NJPW since 1998. However, the company is looking to break the 25,000 mark, as Wrestle Kingdom 19 drew just over 24,000 in 2025, and Meltzer could see that happening given the additional star power provided by AEW.
The only thing that could change the politics of the event is if more AEW stars are added to the show, specifically Adam Copeland and Mercedes Monae, who have both publicly stated that they want to wrestle in the Tokyo Dome. Monae wrestled Mina Shirakawa at a Wrestle Dynasty event in 2025but Copeland has yet to work there and has the place where he wants to celebrate by 2027.
