Welcome to Week 7 of the fantasy football season! Last week gave us big games by some players we are used to seeing big games. Christian McCaffrey, Malik Nabers, Kenneth Walker and Jackson Smith-Njigba all did what they usually do. But some studs haven’t been their usual selves, especially running backs. Bijan Robinson only had 11 touches against the Bears for some reason, which is a misstep by any offensive play caller. Derrick Henry had 18 touchdowns, but the Browns defense held him to just 60 yards and no touchdowns. Kieren Williams had his career ended in a dramatic loss to the Cardinals against Blake Korm and had just 13 touches for 67 yards and no interceptions. After the game, the fans were upset like a nightmare, so maybe we’ll get to see Mr. Williams’ cringe-worthy narrative this week?
Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars. The Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Chiefs will take a week off. We may not have big names like Josh Allen, James Cook, Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Bayshul Tutton and Jayden Daniels, but the Chargers players will have a chance to increase your scoring potential.
Below, we take a look at some of the startups and, you guessed it, sit! Even if you’re in a bad match or not playing well, your mileage may vary depending on who you start with. It’s always a tightrope walk when deciding who should start, so don’t force a guy to sit if there isn’t a better option.
Jordan Love, Packers vs Lions
This is a no-brainer as the Lions defense is the worst in the league, especially in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. Love cracked the top 10 fantasy QBs for the first time this season over the past two weeks against the Cowboys and Bears. He threw exactly two touchdowns in one game, but he added a rushing touchdown on that one, giving him a nice consistency, but not an overturned set. The good news is that the Lions have helped all of their quarterbacks play better than usual. Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Shaw, Geno Smith and Josh Allen all had fantasy games of the year with the Lions. Bryce Young was the only QB who didn’t peak against them, but he still threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Unless you fall into a pit of melted cheese on your way to the game, you’re starting to fall in love.
Kyler Murray, Vikings vs. Colts
Murray played his best game last week against the Saints. He didn’t blow the doors off the field, but his connection to a now-healthy Justin Jefferson was strong and he started running harder (10-51). In addition, Jordan Addison will return from injury and the Colts will be without cornerback Saus Gardner. Also, the Colts aren’t great for the pass rusher, who allows the eighth-most yards per attempt and the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs at Seahawks
Mahomes is currently QB12 in fantasy. He’s played well, throwing two or more touchdowns in a game, but this Majors offense is balanced and Mahomes doesn’t always need to throw the ball that often, which lowers his stats. It’s usually a start, especially with four QBs bye in a week, but playing the Seahawks in Seattle is tough. Seattle’s pass defense gave up the fewest yards per pass attempt and fewest passing yards by a wide margin. Mahomes is efficient, and getting a couple touchdowns out of the question isn’t out of the question, but I don’t think that’s a given, and since no QB has reached 189 passing yards against the Seahawks, I doubt his cap.
Tyler Shaw, Steelers vs. Saints (Paris)
Shaw has been excellent this season, finishing with four top 8 hits in six games. He also had two touchdowns against the Falcons and Vikings. The question this week is whether he can cross the ocean in Paris to play with TJ Watt and Co. So far, the Steelers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks per game. The only QB to throw more than one touchdown against them is Joe Burrow.
I like Shough and believe he has a chance to do well for fantasy in tough matchups, but the travel and matchup make this a tough start this week.
Ollie Gordon, Dolphins vs. Jet
Gordon proved to be a much better leader in Miami than I expected. He’s shown explosiveness, and it shows in the analytics, as he’s in the top 10 among all running backs in rushing. Of course, his team isn’t great and he doesn’t get a bell-cow-like percentage of snaps. However, he’ll get a good matchup this week, as the Jets are 11th-worst in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Dolphins are also coming off a welcome outing, which I hope means they’ve reviewed the first five games and realized that Gordon needs to be on the field more.
Warren has proven to be easily the best running back on the Steelers, but the team wants to give him a break by bringing in Rico Dowdle. The good news is that Warren saw a 74% discount on the Buccaneers last week. He still split his career, with 14 rushing attempts and four targets to Doodle’s seven attempts and four targets. They got a much better matchup this week as the Saints allowed the most fantasy points to a running back this season. Sure, the Falcons scored five rushing touchdowns to skew those numbers, but the underlying metrics are bad because they’ve allowed the highest rate of rushing touchdowns in the league.
Chase Brown, Bengals at Ravens
Brown hasn’t been great this season, but he continues to lead the way. Samaje outplayed Perry entering Week 6 against the Bengals. Perry has yet to come back and take over as the lead, but I expect Brown to continue to split the time moving forward.
They get a tough matchup this week against a Ravens run defense that allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points and ranks fifth in stopping explosive runs. They also allow the fewest yards per game to opposing backs, where Brown can get a good percentage of his fantasy value.
In the end, Brown is still a starter for a team with a decent to high offense. He’s consistent in most leagues, but I don’t expect big numbers anytime soon.
Emmanuel Wilson / Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks vs. Chiefs
Charbonnet will return this week to face the Chiefs, making Wilson’s career low. But, we don’t know how much work Charbonnet will get. He’s been practicing all week, so I expect him to be ready to go, but there’s a chance to ease him up. The problem with the Seahawks’ running game is not who runs the ball, but what they face. Kansas City’s run defense has been one of the best in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 3.5 yards per drive to running backs so far while giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Wilson isn’t a starter, but he has enough upside to throw Charbonnet into a desperate flex position.
Omar Cooper Jr., Jets at Dolphins
Cooper pitched in his first full game against the Patriots last week. The first-round pick injured his ankle in Week 1, so it wasn’t until Week 5 that we saw him play. Cooper now has 28 routes under his belt and has seen eight targets, catching seven for 133 yards and one touchdown. And yes, he’s a starter and Adonai Mitchell could be back from a finger injury this week, but I see no reason why the Jets wouldn’t take the No. 2 receiver in the first round behind Garrett Wilson and see if he can continue his hot start. And getting past the bad Dolphins defense, he has a good chance.
Jeremy Bernard, Thieves Vs. Saints (Paris)
Bernard was elevated as a PPR stud due to injuries to Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson. In the last two weeks, he has accumulated 17 receptions for 167 yards and one touchdown. The Saints play a lot of zone, and Bernard has been good against the zone this season. Aaron Rodgers should be able to find Bernard for several short receptions and at some point I expect to see the rookie break one of those for a big gain. But even if he doesn’t have an explosive game, he fits Aaron Rodgers’ old man style well.
Josh Downs/Keenan Allen, Colts vs. Vikings
The Vikings’ pass defense and consistent blitz will cause Daniel Jones to switch to the outside. Minnesota has allowed just three passing touchdowns and the third most in passing yards allowed. Downs is tough to start at this point, but Allen is paying off in PPR leagues. But that may not be the case this week.
Xavier Worthy, Chiefs at Seahawks
With Patrick Mahomes targeting a team-high seven times, the Chiefs tried to let Worthy go last week. He was used mostly as a target, with 31 total yards against the Chargers. He gets a tougher matchup on the road this week in Seattle. He may see a lot of CB Josh Jobe, which is bad for Worthy. Overall, the Seahawks give up the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, and I don’t like Worthy’s chances of consistently putting up good numbers if he doesn’t get open deep.
Tyler Kraft, Packers vs. Lions
You’ll want to start your Packers lineup against the Lions this week, but the best matchup of the lot is at the end. The Lions are awful against the position, allowing 51 for 545 receptions.
yards and 9 touchdowns in just five games. On average, opposing tight ends are catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and two touchdowns per game.
Sure, she was going to start Kraft, but he’s already been a top 12 fantasy TE this season. He’s getting the job done, but some key drops and bad luck have held him back. I’ll wait even if the fortunes turn this week.
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Raiders
Keeping with Tyler’s theme, Higbee will be called upon to help replace Davonte Adams, who suffered a torn hamstring last week. I worry about Colby Parkinson stealing some work from Higbee, but a matchup against the Raiders should be one in which both tight ends get good side-by-side coverage, and Higbee remains the starter.
This season, the Raiders have allowed six touchdowns in six games. Adams was the Rams’ primary end zone target and I expect Higbe to get more work in the red zone with the star WR.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs at Seahawks
Yes, Kelce still has that special relationship with Patrick Mahomes and they can still do it even though the Patriots tight end is old and slower than dirt. But, it’s going to be tougher this week. The Seahawks’ defense is strong against tight ends, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points and fewest yards against tight ends. All-world T Trey McBride scored on them, but he was also boxed. Despite catching 8-of-10 targets, he finished with just 41 total yards. George Kittle didn’t fare much better, catching 5-of-6 targets for just 24 yards and no touchdowns. Finding a replacement you can trust can be difficult, but I don’t trust Kelsey this week.
Harold Fannin Jr., Browns vs. Titans
Fannin Jr. is coming off two terrible fantasy games as he caught just one pass in each game and didn’t add nine yards in either. However, he was playing well, finishing TE3 and TE11 for Weeks 3 and 4. And with a bad Titans team coming up, it looks like Fanny is in for a rebound. Unfortunately, the Titans are one of the better teams against tight ends. They haven’t allowed a single tight end to go over 34 receiving yards and have faced Kenyon Sadiq, Dallas Goedert, Isaiah Lilly, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz in their six games.
