This has not been the season anyone predicted for Bo Nix.
Not Broncos coach Sean Payton. Not offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Not rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle. Not me, for what it’s worth.
So far this season, Nix’s capacity as a quarterback seems to be diminishing. At first, it was that he seemed hesitant to throw the ball, especially against the 49ers in Week 4. And then he seemed hesitant to throw the ball at all, with nothing but second-half touchdowns against the Seahawks last week.
“I don’t understand why we can’t drive the ball vertically right now,” Nix said after Denver’s 17-14 win over Seattle. “But defenses are just sitting there sitting out, so we’re just going to continue to run the football. And hopefully find ways to get more out of it.”
Added Nix: “We’re really struggling to find those explosive plays. That’s what makes a really spectacular offense is finding those explosive plays. And right now, we don’t have them.”
Broncos QB Bo Nix is struggling in his third NFL season, especially when it comes to producing explosive plays. (Photo by Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)
That’s partly because he’s taking what the defense gives him. Which is a good thing.
It’s also because he lacks the guts — and/or confidence — to take risks and turn them into explosive plays. Which is not a good thing.
Nix ranks second in the NFL in YAC percentage — his receivers are generating 64% of his passing yards after the catch, according to Next Generation Stats. He’s also the QB with the lowest passing percentage (21.7%) among the 37 passers with 50-plus pass attempts, according to Next Generation Stats. (A field goal is a 10-yard-plus attempt.) And that’s, in part, because he’s throwing six passes behind the line of scrimmage (23.8%).
And his passing chart over the course of the season shows a nice visual representation of a quarterback who is, quite frankly, playing scared. There is nothing in the field and nothing in between.
That looks like something new — perhaps even the biggest developmental hurdle Nix has hit in his three-year NFL career.
Last season, Nix’s play was uneven, which is typical for a second-year QB. But he led the league with seven hits, earning him the nicknames “Kid Clutch” and “Kameku Kid.” Of course, he often got his team into those holes with mistakes, inaccuracies and general inconsistency. Because the Broncos won so many games and because Nix was young, Denver took the bad with the good.
And to his credit, Nix hit passers down the field last year. And he converted them into land. He had nine passing touchdowns with a career-high 20 yards and 16 touchdowns (10 more yards). There was real potential in cultivating that part of his game – while getting the most out of it from an efficiency standpoint.
So the team must have acquired Waddle this offseason in an effort to mitigate the problem areas in Nix’s game — and bring that passing element to the court. But the opposite has happened, with the Broncos’ offense unable (and seemingly unwilling) to generate explosive plays.
Now, Nix is the NFL’s most conservative quarterback.
I’d say he’s playing poorly as well. But that’s a label Nix would dispute.
“Playing good and playing bad — it’s a narrative and I think it’s honestly something that we create.” Nix said earlier in October. “I don’t think I’m necessarily playing any different than I normally do.”
Numbers beg to differ. The film seeks to change. This is a different version of Nix. And the Broncos have barely broken water with him offensively.
The question is, why is this year so different?
The quickest answer is the broken ankle he suffered in the playoffs last January. But the problem with that explanation is that it didn’t appear on the Broncos’ injury report — not once. So if there’s an ankle problem, it’s not something that’s affecting him enough in practice to detect.
So what? Could it be the coverages the opposing teams are playing?
“I thought I saw the field really well, especially early on when we were given opportunities to be aggressive,” Nix told reporters after last Thursday’s game. “As the game went on, it felt a little bit like third down was the key. And then, every once in a while, we had an opportunity to throw it deep again. And they were in a Cover-2 shell and there were only 10 yards of clearance.”
Nix has seen a shell coverage, with two high safeties. But not at a pace that should completely prevent him from throwing down the field. He has faced split safeties on 43.1% of his downs, 22nd in the league. This excuse won’t cut it.
So it’s drama with the player.
Webb, OC, started this season as the Nix’s signal caller. But after just four games, Payton assumed those responsibilities again. And when that only seemed to make matters worse for the Nix, it turns out Webb taught the offense a whole new terminology this offseason. When Payton took over, he wanted to go back to his terminology. That meant Nix had to forget what he had learned during the offseason. And it also meant that Waddle, and the other newcomers, had to learn the new language.
Coach Sean Payton (left) returned the offensive call to OC Davis Webb (right) this season only to retake the duties in Week 5. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
Payton gave Webb the calling duties to keep him in the building last offseason, which was surprising considering Payton has long been one of the league’s best signal callers.
“It was because I honestly thought he was going to help us,” Payton said earlier in October of why he gave Webb the play-calling duties. “That’s how unique I think he is. It was because I honestly thought, staying back as a head coach, it would help us.”
It didn’t happen.
But then again, neither is getting Payton. Because if Nix looked bad through these first four weeks, he’s looked terrible in the last two weeks. Speaking broadly about his team, Payton seems to know the Broncos are lucky to have won four of their first six games.
“I’m a bit of a realist to know that 4-2 could easily be 2-4,” he said this week.
Yes.
The Broncos took a tentative quarterback and made him anxious. Nix is barely running – just thankful the defense can take the wheel for him. But Payton said he’s not considering a change at quarterback (the backups are Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger).
In theory, the Broncos should go up from here. They are coming off a 10-day mini-bye after Thursday night’s game. This week, they have the Cardinals, who may have knocked off the Rams, but still have a porous defense. And then in Week 10, the Broncos get a bye, which — at this rate — they’ll have to regroup.
“(Nix) will become a byproduct of all the best things that can be improved,” Payton said, pointing to the offensive line and the team’s continued emphasis on running the football.
The Broncos can rebuild Nix into a better version. Just look at how quickly Patriots QB Drake Maye turned the key after his early season struggles. It won’t be so quick for Nix. And it won’t look like Maye, because Nix just isn’t Maye. Not even close. But Payton can get his game manager back. Payton can resurrect a quarterback who is great at running a good game plan.
He should. Or else it’s like the Broncos coach said — the next six weeks could easily be 2-4.
