Let’s just say this from the start: the All black peoplethe second-ranked team in the world, are heavy favorites in their fortress, Eden Park, for Saturday’s Bledisloe match.
The now sixth-placed Wallabies have not beaten the All Blacks since November 2020, when Reece Hodge played at flyhalf, and the Wallabies have not beaten the All Blacks at Eden Park for 40 years, since 1986.
Interestingly, the Wallabies were ranked seventh in 2020 when they beat the All Blacks, so while anything is possible, the facts remain: the Wallabies are rightly the big underdogs here.
While many New Zealanders may argue that injuries to captain Ardie Savea, flyweights Ruben Love and Richie Mo’unga, as well as Tamaiti Williams, Luke Jacobson and Patrick Tuipulotu, are fatal.
Wallabies fans must be quick to remember that Will Skelton, Langi Gleeson, Carter Gordon, Hunter Paisami, Tom Hooper, Josh Canham and Taniela Tupou are missing in Australia.
Doc Australia missing more players, it all comes back to depth, and where these sides rank.
Second-placed All Blacks who missed six of their potential starters/23. a match compared to the sixth-placed Wallabies who conceded seven is not even comparable.
It is common knowledge that the Wallabies lack depth; it’s not a label that dogs the All Blacks. Although the loss of Love and, especially, the captain Sava, are savage blows to the continuity of the team, they still succeeded with very capable and proven replacements.
So let’s put aside any talk of ‘this is the best chance the Wallabies will get to win’ and focus on the football that will be played.
Let’s look at the parts of the game that the Wallabies and All Blacks will really be looking to either find their own rhythm or disrupt the rhythm of others.
Line
The Wallabies’ formation, scrum and lineout, was a real source of strength in 2026.
At scrum time, regardless of the opposition, Springboks, France or Ireland, the Wallabies held their own and, at times, dominated.
On the line, the Wallabies have been outstanding, and the numbers really bear that out.
In July, the Wallabies and All Blacks played the same three opponents: France, Ireland and Italy.
The All Blacks averaged 82% success in the lineout, with a high rate of 86% against Ireland in their last game of July Nations Championship legs.
Against the same three opponents, the Wallabies averaged 92% lineout success, with a high rate of 100% against France and the lowest 89% compared to Italy.
Against the Springboks in the Greatest Rivalry Tour, the All Blacks averaged an 84% success rate, with a high of 92% in Soweto for Game 3 and a low of 79% in Game 1, where the Kiwis won.
For the Wallabies, in their two games against Japan, two games against Argentina and one game against the Springboks, the Wallabies averaged a 92% lineout success rate.
They were 100% against it Japan and a low of 88% against Argentina.
The Wallabies have secured an average of 90 per cent plus on the line in just eight games this year between two different head coaches.
It shows that the line coach, Tom Donnelly, and the players are really into their details.
This is an area where the Wallabies should be targeting the All Blacks and this should in turn shape their batting strategy.
Any ball that is not tackled, either by a box kick or a high lift, if not a long kick into the All Blacks 22m line, has to come out one way or another.
The Wallabies must work to create as much static competition as possible.
He has to fight for every line, create contests, deny quick throws and battle the All Blacks in every set-up.
The Wallabies are a team that will want to slow the game down, not to slow it down, but because that’s how they show their strength.
The All Blacks will look for every opportunity to avoid this contest.
Post-contact measure
While the big boys will go to town in the set-up, they still need to get the job done in the game phase and getting in at the front for both sides will be crucial.
Against the three July opponents that both the All Blacks and Wallabies faced – France, Ireland and Italy – the numbers are as follows.
The All Blacks averaged 2.1m per carry after contact.
Against the same opposition, the Wallabies managed 2.4m per carry.
In GRT, the All Blacks averaged an impressive 2.8m per carry, just under the Boks’ 3.0m.
In five tests against Japan, Argentina and the Springboks, the Wallabies averaged 2.3m per carry, half a meter less than the All Blacks managed against the Boks.
This does not bode well for the Wallabies going into this game.
The Wallabies managed 2.1m per carry against the Boks in Perth, well below the All Blacks’ average of 2.8m against the same opposition, but the Wallabies should use that as fuel for greater deeds rather than holstering the gun.
The facts remain though: the Wallabies will need to step up their game, find the weak shoulders and really use the forward momentum if they get it, as the numbers suggest they are not creating their own going forward too often.
For context, the gold standard at Test level is somewhere between 3m-4m per carry, so there’s something for both sides here.
Similarly, during the GRT, the All Blacks made an incredible 34 line breaks, an average of 8.5 per game, while the Wallabies averaged just 7.2 per game during Les Kiss’ tenure.
However, it should be noted here that the All Blacks conceded an average of 7.2 per game during those matches as well.
Meanwhile, the Wallabies conceded an average of just 5.2 breaks per game.
Perhaps the most striking statistic is that the All Blacks beat an average of 32 defenders against the Boks in the GRT, while the Springboks beat 22 defenders in return.
The Wallabies beat an average of 25 defenders per game, beating their second highest number of defenders against the Boks in Perth, winning 23.
While these numbers look very high, the Springboks defense does not place a premium on first moves when they fly off the line in their blitz defense system, so expect these numbers to be much lower.
Both the Wallabies and All Blacks use different types of linked lines, each having their own variations of foot speed and moments of sting in their moves.
All these numbers show that the Wallabies have a bit of work to do on the loose when it comes to the side of contention.
However, the All Blacks, with their vastly rebuilt squad, 12 changes to the side that played in Baltimore, are by no means guaranteed the same numbers and triumphs they enjoyed against the Boks’ defensive system.
Nor are the Wallabies expected to reach their heights against the world’s second best team in the Eden Park fortress.
Air game
This part of the game does not need numbers, statistics or charts; The Wallabies slowly but surely grew this part of the game into what culminated in a dominant aerial performance in Perth over the Springboks.
The flanks are widely recognized as the best exponents of the aerial game, and although the Wallabies faced only one of the two wingers who usually start, the Wallabies were still dominant.
The All Blacks currently use a method where the winger on the receiving side drops back and catches the ball facing their own try line.
They had decent success against the Boks; they caught some balls but were smashed in the tackle and knocked back.
While it is unknown whether the All Blacks would have performed better or worse had they contested high balls in the conventional manner, with a player coming forward to the ball, it is still a problem for the All Blacks.
There is a two-fold benefit to catching wing after catch; you don’t get penalized for ‘following’ your own tackler as you jostle with the opposition tackler, and you can stay in the defensive line longer so you don’t give the opposition that space to rush.
Despite the logical reasons for it to work, you still need to jump, and that mechanic is what was so difficult for the All Blacks, and that’s where the Wallabies were so good.
While Wallaby wingers Max Jorgensen and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii have progressed quickly in the high ball, they both have their own unique ways of doing it.
Suaalii is an overhead tackler, which, at 196cm, gives him a big advantage over almost everyone he goes up against, while Jorgensen jumped a lot more and caught him in the breadbasket.
Both have been equally effective to date and both pose a real problem for their opposites in Will Jordan and Leroy Carter at Eden Park.
The contested kick return is as good as the line break, which is why the Springboks have made it such a big part of their game.
Resets the opponent’s defensive shape, allowing playmakers to much more easily pick off lazy or exhausted defenders as they retreat.
The Wallabies need to capitalize on this around the 50m mark and keep the All Blacks on the back foot; too often the Wallabies overplayed in their own half, but it is an area of the game where they are rapidly improving.
For the All Blacks, the addition of Beauden Barrett at full-back, with Cam Roigard and Damien McKenzie at fly-half, as well as Jordie Barrett at No.12, means the All Blacks have several kicking threats, giving them plenty of weapons to punish the Wallabies for poor kicking in midfield.
Real contenders or hoofing into the All Blacks’ 22-metre line or out are the only options the Wallabies can use when scrambling; otherwise, the Wallabies will be in for a world of pain.
While the Wallabies are huge underdogs in this competition, these are the areas of the game they need to target to have any hope of being in the competition after the full whistle.
