We still have to play down in Week 3 and those scores and injury reports (sorry, Giants fans) will come in handy, but the opening lines are out for Week 4 and there is certainly value available for bettors. Let’s take a trip through the lineup and offer a quick thought or two for each game.
Thursday, October 1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-134) vs. Cleveland Browns (+114)
Spread: Steels -2.5 Total: 37.5
The Browns won at home last season 13-6 against the Steelers. No team is better offensively this season…and either could be worse. Expect each side to try to control the ball and limit possessions. Bend to UNDER 37.5.
Sunday, October 4
Indianapolis Colts (-230) vs. Washington Commanders (+190)
Spread: Colts -4.5 Total: 46.5
It will be the second week with Marcus Mariota under center instead of injured Jayden Daniels. This should translate to a more efficient offense. Commanders stay within the IF number Jacory Croskey-Merritt could benefit from a Colts defense that hasn’t been able to slow down the run in their first two games.
Los Angeles Rams (-152) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+128)
Spread: Aries -3 Total: 46.5
The Eagles have won the last two meetings between these teams by one hit or less each. In each of the two, the Rams snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Eagles offense remains a definite work in progress. They just can’t establish the run. Place the points with Aaron Donald and Aries on the road.
New York Jets (+160) vs. Chicago Bears (-190)
Spread: Bears -3.5 Total: 43.5
Not sure who will be under center for the Bears. The minutes Caleb Williams it’s hard to imagine the Bears scoring that quickly or that often Ben Johnson predicted just a few weeks ago. The underdog is UNDER 43.5 overall as the Jets can score but prefer to do so with consistent, time-consuming drives.
Tennessee Titans (+500) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-700)
Spread: Ravens -10.5 Total: 44.5
Baltimore is coming back from its date with Dallas in Rio and may be a little sluggish, but how does Tennessee score? The spread is too big for what could be a tired Baltimore, so Game Total UNDER 44.5 is game.
Why the Jaguars are the easy pick vs. the Patriots
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick break down the Patiots against the Jaguars, explaining why Jacksonville is the smart pick to cover. Plus, concerns grow about Drake Maye’s recent struggles and the Patriots’ offense.
Dallas Cowboys (+124) vs. Houston Texans (-146)
Spread: Texas -2.5 Total: 47.5
Yes, Dallas will have just played in Rio. If we believe that there may be some fatigue, the game is a Total UNDER Game. CJ Stroud has been pedestrian again to start this season, so a splash on the Cowboys to cover is understandable.
New England Patriots (+215) vs. Buffalo Bills (-260)
Spread: Bills -5.5 Total: 50.5
These teams combined for 66 points last December, and the Bills offense looks better this season. Expect the players to have an easy day. Get the game total OVER what is a large accepted number. Enjoy that sweat!
Arizona Cardinals (+116) vs. New York Giants (-136)
Spread: Giants -2.5 Total: 43.5
A long flight for Cards, but I’ve just seen it Jameis Winston experience on Monday night, it’s hard to pin point. Get the points and spin with Jeremiah Love and Cards.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+122) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-144)
Spread: Bengals -2.5 Total: 50.5
The Jaguars can put up points, but so can their opponents. The recommended game is the Hometown Bengals ML with a tendency to Game Total OVER 50.5.
Green Bay Packers (-112) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-104)
Spread: Packers -1.5 Total: 45.5
Should the Packers on their current form be favored on the road against one? Neither team’s attack has been consistent. Lean on UNDER but more in love with Baker Mayfield finding a way in front of the home crowd to cover the number.
Get the Bengals to shut down the shaky Steelers offense
Trysa Krick and Vaughn Dalzell preview the Week 3 AFC North matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals as the Steelers offense looks tough after two games with Aaron Rodgers.
Miami Dolphins (+420) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-560)
Spread: Vikings -10.5 Total: 43.5
The play would actually be the Dolphins Team Total UNDER after that number is released assuming it’s north of 14.5. I’m not sure that Spread or Total can be trusted without information on the availability of Kyler Murray.
Denver Broncos (+172) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-205)
Spread: 49ers -3.5 Total: 46.5
Two stingy defenses and two conservative attacks mean that every point will be the result of long, sustained and time-consuming moves. Get total UNDER 46.5.
Kansas City Chiefs (-240) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+198)
Spread: Chiefs -5.5 Total: 45.5
OVER has gone 1-4 in the last 5 meetings between these AFC West rivals, with the hosts winning three of the eventual five. This year, both teams seem to be better on both sides of the ball. Expect another rock war. Rely on Game Total UNDER 45.5.
Los Angeles Chargers (+275) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-340)
Spread: Seahawks -7 Total: 43.5
Sam Darnold can play in Week 3, so expect him to be a starter for Week 4. This allows us to expect Seattle to score against LA. There are no such expectations for the Chargers before 12th Man. The game is the Seahawks’ Team Total OVER with some pizza money on the home team to cover that number.
Detroit Lions (-138) vs. Carolina Panthers (+118)
Spread: Lions -2.5 Total: 49.5
Bryce Young is looking more and more the part of an NFL quarterback. The Panthers offense has been a threat so far this season. Jared Goff it will be outside, but in Charlotte where the temperatures mean it will thrive. Expect points on this one. It will be a sweat, but eventually it is in the game.
Monday, October 5
Atlanta Falcons (+160) vs. New Orleans Saints (-190)
Spread: Saints -3.5 Total: 45.5
It will probably be a game of two desperate teams. It more often makes sense in such situations to take the home team and while the three-point placement would be better than the published 3.5, we’ll throw the points and take the Saints who look far more organized and together on both sides of the ball.
As always, the numbers you love are worth playing today. If the smart money agrees, you’ll see the number increase in value as the next week and a half unfolds. Until then, enjoy Week 3 of the NFL season.