The Hollie Doyle Factor is in full swing in Lingfield this afternoon. A big gamble on one of their trips caused the price to drop from 40/1 to 14/1. Her mount cut in price in half last night and the money just kept flowing this morning to further reduce it.
That 14/1 is only clinging to one place at the time of writing, bet365 alone is the biggest prize. No other bookmaker is bigger than 11/1 so the price will likely go away.
The game of chance is on Desert pioneer and a quick look at the form reveals a few unplaced efforts, so 40/1 last night came as no surprise to most. After hitting twenty and then thirty lengths, he won’t be within the money’s reach on either of these starts, but there are a few key factors to consider.
The first of these is the shape of the James Ferguson court. Three winners and two seconds from his last ten runners in this country shows a stable that is in flight form. Second, the two runs he had so far removed from his protégé both came over a mile and did not show the speed to interfere. He’s moving up four stages in the ride for his third start and that has the potential to make all the difference.
His family tree is that of a mile, so it is not surprising that his connections began there. Soft ground on his Windsor debut didn’t seem to suit and they went hard early last time at Kempton and he didn’t have the pace to gallop. After all, his mother is related to some middle-distance horses and a four-time hurdle winner, so he is well worth a try on this new journey.
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