Picks, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings for Aug. 25 2021

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A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more information on betting, see DraftKings.com.

Last night was very annoying. Jack Flaherty didn’t make it past two innings, Xander Bogaerts went 0 for 5 in a game of 20 runs, and Lars Nootbaar didn’t even start. Time for wednesday, yeah?

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Last night was very annoying. Jack Flaherty didn’t make it past two innings, Xander Bogaerts went 0 for 5 in a game of 20 runs, and Lars Nootbaar didn’t even start. Time for wednesday, yeah?

Biggest moneyline favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shohei Ohtani, $ 8,700, Los Angeles Angels (-210) in Baltimore Orioles The future American League MVP wins tonight against the Orioles, who are in the middle of a 19-game bankruptcy. Yeah, 19, the age we all wished we were again. The last time the Orioles won a game was on August 2, when they beat the Yankees 7-1. Since then it has been a team that you have to face if you have to get back on track. The O’s tried very hard last night and scored eight runs against the Angels, but of course they allowed 14 runs. Shame.

Betting the moneyline when Ohtani starts has been a productive strategy lately as the Angels have won four starts in a row that he has made and 9 of his last 11. During that time, he has not more than two runs allowed. Consolidation of its MVP quotas (-3500). The Angels also did well as street favorites, going 14-9 on the money line in this scenario. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 14-36 as home underdogs. Ohtani continues to be undervalued despite being as well placed as him. His salary of $ 8,700 is ridiculous considering how well he’s done over the past three months. I would expect it to cost at least $ 9,500, but trust me, I’m not upset about it. Given a team that currently owns a .311 WOBA, a .167 ISO, and a 24.8% K% against right-handed, I’m not sure what to worry about.

Minnesota Twins (+140; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-160; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs – As I write this early Wednesday morning, only one game has a forecast grand total in the double digits. The Twins and Red Sox continue their streak at Fenway Park after doing 20 runs together last night. Both bullpen were devastated, which could lead to another night with large offensive numbers. The Twins remain the best team in the league when it comes to hitting the over 61.3% of the time, leading the league at 3.4%. The Red Sox continue to struggle with the over with a total of only 46%, but improve slightly compared to a Fenway Park with 47.6%.

While we always focus on the starting pitchers when it comes to taking the over or under in the game, I can’t stress enough the importance of looking at the teams’ bullpens as well. The Twins’ bullpen in particular was bad this month. In August they threw 86 innings and got 4.79 FIP, 1.57 HR / 9, 3.77 BB / 9 and only 8.5 K / 9. If we focus on the past week, those numbers go up to 6.79 FIP, 4.8 BB / 9, and 2.5 HR / 9. The Red Sox bullpen was also lit last night, abandoning five of the eight runs scored by the Twins while using six relievers. With both starters sharing fights lately, this feels like another game with lots of runs to score.

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst of all against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mitch Keller, .414, 6.52
Bailey Ober, .379, 5.23
Dean Kremer, .363, 4.69

Best against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Brandon Woodruff, .219, 2.30
Blake Snell, 238, 2.61
Robbie Ray, .242, 1.66

Pitcher vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dean Kremer, .399, 6.83
Blake Snell, .366, 5.04
Mitch Keller, .358, 4.58

Best against RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buhler, .229, 3.05
Shohei Ohtani, 233, 2.19
Zack Wheeler, .255, 2.52

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, $ 9,300 – Castillo continues to have an excellent second half and faces the Brewers for the sixth (!) Time this season. He’s played extremely well against them almost every time and has some impressive numbers against this club. In 29 innings, Castillo has a 3.52 FIP, a 0.287 WOBA, a 10.2 K / 9, and only a 0.3 HR / 9. Overall, the second half of the season was a massive turnaround for Castillo from what we’ve seen before. In 42 innings he has a FIP of 3.91 with 10.5 K / 9 and 1.2 HR / 9. Against a team that he keeps in check several times, I roll with him as SP1.

Trea Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, $ 5,300 – Turner continues to thrive in a Dodgers uniform. Since joining them, he has had a .360 wOBA, a .161 ISO and a 135 wRC +. Tonight he’ll take on Blake Snell ($ 7,500), who has been better lately, but I’m still not convinced he’s back to normal. Turner beats absolutely left-handed pitching with a .472 wOBA, a .276 ISO, and a 196 wRC +. With the way he’s been performing lately and the immense protection in this Dodgers lineup, Turner should do well in this matchup against Snell.

Brent Rooker, Minnesota Twins with the Boston Red Sox, $ 2,700 – Second place on the Twins roster at just $ 2,700 is a good value. In one of the games with the highest scores of the evening, Rooker brought good pop to the Twins line-up with an ISO of .207 against right-handers. His totals aren’t great, but of the 24 hits he’s had this season, 13 have gone for additional bases, six of which are home runs. Against right-handers in Fenway Park, Pivetta has allowed 10 of the total of 18 permitted home runs. In fact, he’s got 1.9 HR / 9 at home this season compared to just 0.69 HR / 9 on the road.

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